Vietnam’s Economy in Q3/2025: Strong Recovery as Services Lead and Trade Surplus Persists

After a turbulent global period, Vietnam’s economy continues to show remarkable resilience.
In the third quarter of 2025, GDP grew 8.23% year-on-year, marking the second-highest increase in over a decade, only behind the post-COVID rebound in 2022.

GDP Growth Reaches 11-Year High

According to the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), GDP in Q3 rose 8.23%, 0.83 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024.
For the first three quarters of 2025, GDP expanded 7.85%, the highest in 11 years, reflecting a solid and sustainable recovery after global supply chain disruptions.

GDP growth has rebounded strongly post-pandemic, maintaining steady upward momentum since 2023.

“The 8.23% growth in Q3 demonstrates Vietnam’s strong adaptability and economic resilience,” said Nguyen Thi Huong, Director General of the General Statistics Office.

Economic Structure: Services Lead, Industry Accelerates

During the first nine months of 2025, the services sector remained the main growth driver, rising 8.49% and contributing over 51% of total added value.
Industry and construction grew 8.55%, with manufacturing and processing up 9.92%, continuing to act as the engine of industrial growth.
Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries rose 3.83%, maintaining a stable foundation for food supply and exports.

Services and manufacturing together account for more than 85% of total added value — reflecting Vietnam’s shift toward high-value sectors.

The country’s economic structure continues to shift from extensive to intensive growth, emphasizing higher productivity and innovation-based sectors — a critical step toward modernization and sustainable development.

Foreign Trade Remains Vibrant – Trade Surplus Sustained

Vietnam’s international trade continued to strengthen.
In the first nine months of 2025, total import–export turnover reached USD 680.66 billion, up 17.3% year-on-year.

• Exports: +16%

• Imports: +18.8%

• Trade surplus: USD 16.82 billion

Exports increased sharply thanks to electronics, textiles, and processed goods; trade surplus continues to support macroeconomic stability.

“A trade surplus of nearly USD 17 billion has strengthened foreign reserves and stabilized exchange rates,” the report noted.
“This is a crucial factor enabling Vietnam to maintain competitiveness amid global uncertainties.”

Enterprise Momentum and Rising Business Confidence

Over 231,300 enterprises were newly established or resumed operations during the first nine months of 2025 — a 26.4% increase.
On average, 25,700 businesses entered the market each month, compared to 19,400 closures, resulting in a positive balance.

The number of new businesses exceeds closures, reflecting renewed confidence in Vietnam’s economic environment.

A survey of the manufacturing sector revealed:

• 40.8% expect conditions to improve in Q4

• 41.7% foresee stability

• Only 17.5% anticipate challenges

This indicates growing optimism and steady production sentiment heading into the final quarter of 2025.

Macroeconomic Stability: A Foundation for Future Growth

Inflation remains under control, with the CPI rising 3.38% over the same period last year — below the National Assembly’s 4% target.
Public investment disbursement reached over 51% of the VND 1.11 quadrillion plan as of September, with each 1% increase in disbursement estimated to add 0.058 percentage points to GDP.

These results highlight the importance of accelerating public investment, boosting productivity, and enhancing domestic consumption as Vietnam aims for long-term sustainable growth.

Conclusion: A Broad-Based Recovery, but Challenges Remain

With steady GDP growth, a robust trade surplus, and renewed business confidence, Vietnam’s economy is on a cautiously optimistic trajectory.
However, to reach the full-year growth target of 8.3–8.5%, authorities emphasize the need to sustain domestic demand, enhance productivity, and remove bottlenecks in public investment.

“Each month stronger than the last, each quarter better than before — that’s a positive sign of our economy’s momentum,” said Nguyen Thi Huong, GSO Director General.

Source: General Statistics Office – Ministry of Finance, October 6, 2025